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Probability of an offer
PPE asks for AAA with no subject requirement. Maths is not required but is read as the signal for the economics papers, so an A* there is worth more than an A* anywhere else.
Two scored modules of 22 questions in 40 minutes each, no calculator, then a 40 minute writing task that is not marked but is sent to your tutors. Set the scores you think you will get, not the ones you want.
Editable. Type into any answer and the counts update. The limit is 4,000 characters across all three, with a minimum of 350 each. Saved in this browser as you type.
Things that are true today. Untick anything that is not.
Second stage of the model. None of this affects shortlisting, all of it affects conversion. Roughly a third of shortlisted PPE candidates get an offer, and this is where that third is decided.
From your own notes. You are ready to drill when you can do every one of these from memory.
Not more reading lists. These are the things that separate a shortlisted candidate from one who converts, and almost nobody does them.
Marginal effect on the offer probability, in percentage points, of doing each remaining thing. Recalculated as you tick things off.
The model works in log odds and multiplies two stages: shortlisting, then conversion. Weights are judgement, not published data, so trust the ranking more than the level.
Everything loaded before you drill. From the UAT-UK Content Specification and Question Guide, Oct 2025 and Jan 2026 versions. Anything not from those documents is flagged.
| Module | Content | Length | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Critical Thinking | Evaluating arguments in everyday prose | 22 MCQs, 5 options | 40 min |
| 2. Problem Solving | Novel numerical and logical problems | 22 MCQs, 5 options | 40 min |
| 3. Writing Task | One essay from three prompts, max 750 words | 1 essay | 40 min |
Hard rules.
Scoring. Critical Thinking and Problem Solving are reported separately, each on a scale of 1.0 to 9.0 to one decimal place, statistically scaled so versions of differing difficulty are equated. The writing task is not marked by UAT-UK, but a copy goes to every participating university you applied to, so an Oxford tutor reads it. Treat it as graded. Results land roughly four weeks after sitting.
An argument is reasons put forward as grounds for a conclusion. It is valid if the conclusion follows logically: accept the reasons and you must accept the conclusion.
Expect intermediate conclusions: a claim supported by the reasons which itself supports the main conclusion. Direction matters, and getting it backwards is the single most common trap in main-conclusion questions.
UAT-UK does not publish how many of each type appear in a 22 question set. Do not assume an even split or bank on any type being rare. Drill all seven at volume.
Recognise: which option "best expresses the main conclusion".
Trap: an evaluative restatement of the reasons that sounds conclusion-shaped but only repackages support already given. Test: does this claim receive support from something else, or only compress what was already stated?
Recognise: what "can be concluded" or "follows", with no conclusion stated in the passage.
Trap: promoting a correlation or an average into a causal or universal claim. If the passage gives averages, the answer stays at that strength.
Recognise: "underlying assumption", "assumes".
Trap: a plausible background fact that is not load-bearing. The negation test is the only reliable filter, not plausibility, not topical relevance.
Recognise: "if true, most strengthens or weakens".
Trap: an analogous outcome elsewhere mistaken for a direct rebuttal. It is suggestive, not load-bearing, unless the passage tells you the mechanism transfers.
Recognise: "the flaw in the argument". Full method in section 04.
Trap: an option describing a real flaw the passage does not commit. Getting the letter right without naming the flaw first means you got lucky. Flag it.
Recognise: "most closely parallels the reasoning".
Trap: an option on the same real-world topic with a different, often valid, structure.
Recognise: "which of the following illustrates the principle".
Trap: an option with the same moral flavour, say fairness, instantiating a different principle. Two wrongs don't make a right and reciprocity are not the same rule. Check the rule, not the vibe.
| Form | Valid | Name |
|---|---|---|
| If X then Y; X; therefore Y | Yes | modus ponens |
| If X then Y; not Y; therefore not X | Yes | modus tollens |
| If X then Y; Y; therefore X | No | affirming the consequent |
| If X then Y; not X; therefore not Y | No | denying the antecedent |
Why they go wrong. Two failure modes. Label bait: you spot a familiar flaw word in an option, cause, sample, assumes all, and match it to the passage's general shape without checking the argument does it. Skipping the details: flaw passages carry factual sentences that are neither evidence nor conclusion, and you treat them as background when they are the answer key. CT-0887 had both. Option A used the word "cause", and the sentence about the academy figure covering only graduates who played for the first team while the transfer figure covered every player was the flaw, stated outright.
| Flaw | Tell in the passage | Typical option wording |
|---|---|---|
| Correlation to causation | Two things go together, conclusion says one produces the other | assumes that because X accompanies Y, X causes Y |
| Reverse causation | Causal claim where the arrow could run backwards | overlooks that Y may lead to X |
| Alternative explanation | A single explanation for an outcome with obvious rivals | fails to consider that some other factor could explain |
| Flaw | Tell in the passage | Typical option wording |
|---|---|---|
| Survivorship, selection mismatch | Groups counted under different inclusion rules, one filtered by success | counts only those who succeeded while counting all others |
| Unlike-for-like | Different periods, populations, conditions or measures on each side | compares figures not measured on the same basis |
| Percentages versus absolutes | A rate supporting a claim about quantity, or the reverse | treats a larger proportion as a larger number |
| Averages hiding distribution | Conclusion about typical members drawn from a mean | an average may conceal wide variation |
| Flaw | Tell | Option wording |
|---|---|---|
| Hasty generalisation | Few cases lead to a general claim | draws a general conclusion from too few cases |
| Unrepresentative sample | One subgroup leads to a claim about the whole | assumes the group studied is typical |
| Flaw | Tell | Option wording |
|---|---|---|
| Necessary versus sufficient | Only if, requires, needs, treated as a guarantee, or the reverse | treats a condition that is required as one that is enough |
| Affirming the consequent | If X then Y; Y; so X | assumes that because the result occurred, the condition was met |
| Denying the antecedent | If X then Y; not X; so not Y | assumes that without the condition the result cannot occur |
| Flaw | Tell | Option wording |
|---|---|---|
| Ad hominem | Attacks the person, not the claim | criticises the source rather than the argument |
| Tu quoque | Dismisses criticism because the critic is guilty too | rejects a point because its proponent acts inconsistently |
| Straw man | Rebuts a weaker version of the opposing view | misrepresents the opposing position |
| Appeal to authority | Expert says so, outside their field or without reasons | relies on the status of the source |
| Appeal to popularity | Many people believe or do it | assumes a widely held view must be correct |
| Shifting the burden of proof | A claim treated as established because nobody disproved it | treats the absence of a case against a claim as establishing it |
| Flaw | Tell | Option wording |
|---|---|---|
| Circular reasoning | The conclusion restated as a premise | assumes what it sets out to prove |
| False dilemma | Two options presented when others exist | presents two alternatives as the only possibilities |
| Equivocation | A key word shifts meaning between premise and conclusion | uses a term in two different senses |
| Slippery slope | A chain of escalating consequences without support | assumes one step will inevitably lead to extreme outcomes |
| Composition or division | Part to whole, or whole to part | assumes what is true of the parts is true of the whole |
Elimination heuristics. Run these on every CT question, after your own diagnosis and before the type-specific attack separates the last two. Kill any option that is:
Two options usually die on sight. Separate the final two by going back to the exact wording of the stem and passage, never by which sounds better.
Booklet shorthand. → supports, ⇒ main conclusion, IC intermediate conclusion, ¬ negation, C and O on detail sentences, X and Y for repeated ideas in matching arguments. Cross out option letters as they die. Once a type is above 90 per cent untimed, drop the full write-out for that type and keep the one-line skeleton.
Time model. 40 minutes over 22 questions is about 1 minute 50 seconds each. Short main-conclusion and drawing-a-conclusion items should take 60 to 75 seconds, which buys time for flaw, matching arguments and applying principles, which run past 2 minutes. Hard stop: if two options survive after 2 minutes 30 seconds, pick the one that passes test (a), flag it, move on.
Universal routine. Run this on every question before the operation-specific attack.
Recognise: far more data than needed, often a table with several conditions.
Trap: including an item that passes the condition you checked most carefully but fails another. Every condition gets a column.
Recognise: you have the data but no obvious route.
Trap: applying a percentage to the wrong base, or splitting a fixed fee by a ratio. With your maths background the extra risk is over-engineering, reaching for algebra where a ratio or inspection does it in 20 seconds.
Recognise: the same information shown two ways, bar against pie, table against graph, net against solid, or a spatial manipulation.
Trap: matching on surface appearance rather than the numeric relationship.
| Wording | Means | Do this |
|---|---|---|
| at least 12, 12 or later | greater than or equal to, so 12 qualifies | Write the symbol on the booklet, never the strict one |
| more than 12, after | strictly greater, 12 does not qualify | Write the strict symbol |
| in the last 21 days | A fixed-length window ending today | Write the first and last dates explicitly, then check the boundary day |
| any part of a day counts as a whole day | Round up, a ceiling | Never floor a partial block |
| exact clock times for a hire | Billing runs in fixed blocks from the start time, not calendar days | Count elapsed hours, convert to blocks. If only dates given, count calendar days |
| only if | A necessary condition | Every listed condition must hold |
| per, each, for every | A rate | Check which unit the rate attaches to before multiplying |
Simple fractions, place value, percentage concepts. The four rules, percentage operations, everyday calculations, the mean. Time and the calendar, money, measures. Conversions required: 1 km = 1000 m, 1 m = 100 cm, 1 cm = 10 mm, 1 kg = 1000 g. Other units may appear but their conversions are given. Area, perimeter, volume. Extracting information from graphs, charts and tables. Nothing above GCSE and no complex fraction or decimal work, so if a problem seems to need heavy algebra you have missed the intended shortcut.
Percentages, ratios, proportion. Rates: speed, distance, time, work rate, filling. Money: best value, discounts, bills, hire charges. Counting and basic combinatorics. Area, perimeter, volume and scaling. Spatial reasoning: nets, folding, rotations, shortest routes, dice. Timetables, calendars, scheduling, date windows. Logic-grid deduction. Table, chart and graph reading. Number puzzles and sequences. Grouping, where the greatest number of identical groups is the highest common factor.
Estimate first, since the options are usually well spread and a rough figure often kills three or four. Back-solve by substituting options when forward working is slow. Round then correct. Factor and cancel before multiplying. Convert units early. Hunt the structural insight before grinding. Sanity-check magnitude.
Under 2 minutes each. First pass banks everything that yields in under 90 seconds. Flag anything with no traction after about 30 seconds. Second pass takes the flagged set, hardest last. Final 60 seconds: fill every blank. With no negative marking a blank is strictly worse than a guess.
Three prompts, answer one. Each typically gives a short statement and asks you to explain what you think is meant by it, give a reasoned argument against it, and say to what extent you agree. Max 750 words, 40 minutes, no subject knowledge required. Official example: democratic freedom means there should be no restriction on what may be said in public.
All three parts must be clearly and separately addressed. Missing part two, or treating part three as a summary, is a structural failure however good the prose.
The bar for PPE: a dialectically mature 750 words. A non-trivial thesis, the strongest opposing case engaged, load-bearing examples, controlled prose. Your economics and philosophy help only when the content serves the argument, never as a substitute for reasoning.
Error log categories. Use these consistently so the retest queue targets the skill, not just the question. Misread stimulus. Missed the conclusion. Assumption not tested. Scope error. Too-strong option. Reversed relation. Label bait, matched flaw vocabulary without checking the argument does it. Detail not audited, skipped the sentence that opened or closed the flaw. Arithmetic slip. Unit or conversion error. Wrong figure selected. Constraint word misread, boundary day, ceiling against floor. Billing-period model, calendar days against elapsed blocks. Method not found. Time pressure. Careless.
Check every date against the official source before you rely on it. Dates shift each cycle, including the ones in your own notes.